Predicting 2008: 100 years of US Presidential Elections – Part 1

Until recently, I was certain I understood presidential elections and what it took to win. My theory went something like this:

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1. Governors win presidential elections (Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush)

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2. Senators lose presidential elections (Bob Dole, John Kerry Walter Mondale)

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I was convinced that, to win in 2008, the Democrats must have a candidate with proven leadership skills; an executive of some sort. A Governor, preferably.? Maybe a General.? At the very least, a popular, big-city mayor.? But NOT another lousy Senator.

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Then I started analyzing the data- and I had to throw out all of my initial assumptions.

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Over the next few weeks, I will present my research in series of posts comparing the current batch of potential candidates against candidates of the past 100 years.? I will also analyze past election results and make predictions about the 2008 election.

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In this first post, however, I will simply present the current batch of potential presidential candidates and explain why each of them is unique- i.e. why analysis of, and predictions for, the 2008 race will be so difficult.

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Here we go?

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Hillary Clinton (D) ? Unique Characteristic: SEX
If the Democrats select this Senator from NY as their candidate in 2008, they will be the first major political party in the US to select a woman as their candidate for the presidency.

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Barack Obama (D) ? Unique Characteristic: RACE
This Illinois Senator’s father is from Africa.? While a number of African Americans have participated in Democratic primary elections, no African American candidate has ever been selected to represent a major political party in the Presidential Election.

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Rudy Giuliani (R) ? Unique Characteristic: POLITICAL EXPERIENCE
A large number of Presidential candidates- and many Presidents- once served at state governors.?? But no major political party has ever selected a Mayor to be their Presidential candidate.

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John McCain (R) ? Unique Characteristic: AGE
This Senator from AZ will turn 71 in 2008. ?The average age of a US President, at the time they assume office, is 55. ?Ronald Reagan, the current record holder, was only 69 when he was sworn in to office.

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Please feel free to?add comments as new candidates announce…?
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