October surprise: we will attack Iran

I am now 100% convinced that we will attack Iran before the fall elections. I’d suspected for quite a while that the Administration wanted this, but I think we now have concrete evidence that it will happen. You may have heard, Admiral Fallon “resigned” yesterday. Galrahn points out some interesting facts at Information Dissemination.

Four star flag officers, particularly Joint Combatant Commanders, do not resign in the middle of war because of a media report. I read the Esquire article from front to back 5 times, I cannot find a single negative quote from Adm. Fallon about President Bush. I see plenty of criticism from Barnett. The implication is Bush can’t read, which is bullshit, or Fallon is being pushed out, which sounds more believable.

I might be mistaken, but I believe we are witness to Bush fire his first General/Admiral of the war. Think long and hard as you contemplate what that means.

He goes on to explain some of the background of the current political state of the military, including the split between “moderates” who desire a “cooperative” approach, and hardliners who want unilateral military action. His conclusion:

If you didn’t read the Esquire piece, or didn’t read my earlier response, you may of just missed what could in fact be a signal of war to Iran. I know one thing, if I was Iran, that is the only way to read this. There was a message for Iran in the Barnett article:

“Admiral William Fallon shakes his head slowly, and his eyes say, These guys [Iran] have no idea how much worse it could get for them. I am the reasonable one.”

Are we assuming the Bush administration can’t read, Barnett is saying that, Barnett makes all the cuts at the Bush administration in the article, not Fallon. Barnett appears to have been dead right though. Reasonable people who do nothing wrong don’t quit because a reporter writes an article bad about a politician, but unreasonable people can make that person quit. I really am stunned, I have never really believed the US was going to strike Iran until today.

It’ll happen. We’ve been beating that drum for quite a while now, and Fallon has only been at his post for a year. Galrahn is right – Fallon was forced out by someone upset about the politics. That’s the only way this makes sense. And it’s a strong signal that the Administration wishes to push forward plans for war with Iran.