The Traders Have Spoken: Obama to Win Nomination, Presidency

  • Posted by Eric
  • April 9, 2008

Book it:

Traders in the Dublin-based Intrade prediction market gave Democratic front-runner Barack Obama an 86 percent chance of being the Democratic presidential nominee, versus a 12.8 percent for Clinton, the New York senator and former first lady.

Results were similar on the Iowa Electronic Markets at the University of Iowa, with traders giving Obama an 82.9 percent chance of winning, versus a 12.8 percent chance for Clinton.

Intrade traders were betting the Democratic nominee would ultimately become president. They gave the Democrat a 59.1 percent chance of winning, versus a 48.8 percent chance for the Republican. Iowa traders gave the Democrat a 57.1 percent chance of winning, versus 46.3 percent for the Republican.

Yes, Connie. We want her to step down.

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April 9th, 2008
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Plunderchat:

Comment Number:
1
Written by:
Joseph
Posted on:
April 9, 2008 at 1:23 pm

Hey! I was gonna post that.

Anyway- Hillary is up a little now: Barack 86.0% to Hillary’s 13%.

But I think one of the more interesting things on Intrade was the VP predictions: Jim Webb and Bill Richardson are leading the pack at around 11% each- followed closely by Hillary Clinton at 9%.

Comment Number:
2
Written by:
afs
Posted on:
April 16, 2008 at 12:33 pm

There is a charity driven prediction market (real money!) called http://www.bet2give.com

Check out the presidential widget.

Comment Number:
3
Written by:
Plunderbund - » Bet2Give Lets Your Predictions Do Some Good
Posted on:
April 16, 2008 at 2:19 pm

[…] this up in a comment on our Intrade post that showed Obama will win the nomination and Presidency. Bet2Give is a similar site, but actually […]