Comments on: Pollsters Not Capturing Key Obama Demo: Cell Phone Only Voters

By: Cellphone only people strongly support Obama « Majorman’s Musings

Cellphone only people strongly support Obama « Majorman’s Musings — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 16:17:04 +0000

[...] few interesting blog posts on this topic here, here, and here.Â Now do you understand why the Obama campaign used the text message to announce Senator [...]

By: Eric

Eric — Tue, 15 Jul 2008 00:27:52 +0000

You may be right Modern, but Obama seems to be motivating new young voters (who might be cell only) way more than John Kerry. Guess we’ll see.

By: Modern Esquire

Modern Esquire — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 23:43:32 +0000

I’ve been hearing the “cell phone” poll bias meme for some time now. I distinctly remember people claiming that Kerry would do better than the polls showed for that very reason.

The main problem I have with this theory is that most younger people only have cell phones- a demographic with a significantly lower turnout rate than almost any other demographic (except unregistered voters:)).

For that reason, I think the entirely theoretical “cell phone” demographic bias is highly unlikely to create a 2-3% bias among all registered voters or likely voters.

The quantification of the bias is largely a matter of pure speculation, and one that doesn’t seem to reflect the possible bias.

Recent studies estimate that only 16% of American households are wireless only. That means that the wireless family has to be almost exclusively pro-Obama (at rates that mirror his support in the African-American population) to creat a 2 to 3% bias.

In other words, even assuming this speculative estimation is even factually valid, the supposed bias isn’t significant enough to say that it isn’t already considered or falls within any given poll’s margin of error.

By: J-Dog

J-Dog — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 17:54:55 +0000

I’d ditch the home phone in a minute if I had reliable cellular coverage. And, I live less than 150 feet from a U.S. Highway.

Can you hear me now? No? Darn!