ORP poll shows Husted losing primary beyond the margin of error; ODP confirms

By On March 30, 2010 · 12 Comments

What Ohio Daily Blog reports as unsourced rumor, we can report as fact.

On Sunday, the Cincy Enquirer reported concerns in the Ohio GOP that ’06 State Treasurer Candidate Sandra O’Brien might doing it again and knock off party favorite, former Speaker/former Kettering resident Jon Husted:

Republicans are concerned that the primaries will force candidates to spend money that could otherwise be saved for the general election in the fall, or that the results could cost them the election in close races.

…

O’Brien of Ashtabula County in Northeast Ohio has two of the Ohio Republican Party’s most important constituencies – tea party activists and social conservatives – lining up behind her bid for secretary of state, Ohio’s chief elections officer.

You’d be hard pressed to look at the Secretary of State’s race and not see a parallel to O’Brien’s stunning upset against incumbent Republican Treasurer Jeanette Bradley, except this time O’Brien is the candidate with statewide campaign experience and she has a tailored-made constituency with the Tea Party/9-12 activists base that is repelled by establishment moderate Republicans like Jon Husted.? For his part, Husted’s campaign website tries to appeal to the Tea Party movement (they get their own webpage!), but his case makes for some weak tea.? He actually boasts an accomplishment that is, in reality, supporting Governor Strickland’s first budget.

And we have been told from reliable sources that the Ohio Republican Party has conducted a poll on the GOP primary for Secretary of State and found that Husted is losing to O’Brien beyond the margin of error just weeks before the primary election voting ends.? The margin was reportedly roughly six points.

The Ohio Democratic Party has confirmed that they have heard the same story about a poll showing Husted losing.

A lot has been made of how Jon Husted was a “lock” for the GOP nomination based on his enormous fundraising advantage.? However, money in the bank is useless if it’s never spent to get voters to the polls for you.? We’ll see come May if Husted may have taken the primary for granted (or if you start seeing some major expenditures on his behalf.)

Evangelize!
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  • john_edwards

    internal polls for me, but not for thee. i'm assuming you're not too happy about the internal ODP polls on brunner-fisher

  • mvirenicus

    political polls only prove that americans don't know shit from shinola and democracy is doomed until the people of this country free themselves from slavery to capitalism and have the ability to educate themselves.

  • scottpullins

    It's my understanding that ORP is launching a $1 million GOTV effort to try and save Yost and Husted. I don't have any big issues with Seth Morgan, but Sandy O'Brien is fruitloops.

  • john_edwards

    2006 was the dems' year, and 2010 will be the return of the GOP. it doesn't matter who wins the GOP primaries, the winner will sail through no matter who it is. when mike dewine is ahead in the polls, you kn0w something big is going on. hell, we could send somebody as ridiculous as marc dann out there and win this year.

  • mvirenicus

    in ohio you could run daffy duck for either party and have at least a 50 percent chance of his victory in this backward redneck state, but on the national level i'll be surprised if the gop picks up more than a dozen seats in the house and three in the senate. i actually don't think they'll do *that* well.

  • modernesquire

    Except that the GOPers in Ohio aren't polling as well as the Democrats were in 2006. While I agree this cycle will be more competitive than four years ago, you are GROSSLY overstating the political environment.

    Strickland can still win with 5 points down. Portman is essentially in a dead heat. These are the tops of your tickets and your best chances.

  • john_edwards

    I agree with your point that the GOP isn't polling as well as the dems in 2006, but you haven't factored in the liberal bias in the major polls. Historically, the GOP has had some of their best elections in years when they were slightly underwater in the generic Gallup Poll. Right now, they're UP significantly in the generic poll. There is no way to estimate what this means, as the GOP has rarely been in this position before.

    Strickland is <50% in every poll, which as you know is death for any incumbent. [I wasn't really inciting violence there, just saying I think Strickland will lose :) ]

    I haven't seen Portman anywhere but up 6-10 points, but maybe that leveled off while I wasn't watching.

  • http://plunderbund.com Joseph

    So you think it's going to be Maryellen O'Shaughnessy v Sandra O?Brien?

    Can you just see the confusion at the polls? Old people on their cell phones calling home to figure out who to vote for…

    “hey honey… can you sign on to AOL and look something up for me? I totally forgot which Irish Catholic broad that nice Tea Party guy told us we should vote for. “

    mumbled response.

    “No, I said 'TEA PARTY'. You know, that guy we met when we were at the social security office… the one who was complaining about his Medicare benefits.”

  • http://www.plunderbund.com Eric

    Clicked over from email just to hit “Like”. ;-)

  • modernesquire

    Again, the 50% incumbent myth applies to close to the election, not this far out. This has been discussed and dismantled by polling experts already.

    Five-points is hardly death for Strickland who can easily bounce back. Voters know practically nothing about Kasich, when the race becomes more about a comparison of the two, it will tighten and Strickland can prevail.

    Your “polls have a liberal bias” is just crap. Utter horseshit. These same polling outfits correctly predicted the Republican wins in the 1990s and pre-2006. There's absolutely no basis to suggest that polls have historically underestimated Republican support in Ohio. None.

    Um, Portman hasn't been leading 6-10 points:
    http://www.pollster.com/polls/oh/10-oh-sen-ge-p…
    There hasn't been a single poll showing Portman with a ten point lead.
    Not even the OH Right-To-Life poll suggested that.

    Real Clear Politics gives Portman a statistically insignificant 2 point polling average lead over Lee Fisher. That's called a tossup, which is how every pundit has ranked that race currently.

    You're an adorable GOP troll, but you're just flat out wrong.

  • mvirenicus

    when are these reich-wingers gonna give up on that liberal bias in the media and polling crap? i read shit like that and i'm torn between laughter and sighs of despair.

  • Mick

    Who is the specific author of this nonsense? Jon Husted beat the pants off of O'Brien because he has worked his tail off traveling the state, conveying his message to all 88 counties in Ohio. He beat her 2 votes to 1!!!! And you know as well as anyone that the only reason O'Shaunnessey is running is because the Democrats are rightfully fearful that Husted will cruise to victory in November…get the facts straight and stop reporting false poll results…you have lost integrity and I'll never visit this website again.

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