As the House takes up a version of SB 5, it might be worthwhile to think about the number of “conversion stories” we’re hearing from union members, and to give those stories some context.

According to 2010 exit polls, 26% of the votes cast in Ohio were by voters in union households. Many have assumed labor to be overwhelmingly in support of Democrats, but at the level of individual voters, that’s not really been the case. Among union household voters, at least 45% voted for Rob Portman, and at least 31% voted for Kasich. So let’s do a little math… we can make an estimate of the lower bound of the proportion of swing voters by saying at least 14% of union household voters split their ticket between Portman and Strickland. This is a lower bound because many who voted for both Kasich and Portman will not be reliable GOP votes in 2012, but for the sake of argument, we’ll assume that 31% can’t be flipped to the Dem Side and 55% can’t be flipped to the GOP side. 14% of 26% is 3.64%. That number is now our estimate of the number of a) union household voters who were b) Republicans downticket, but c) willing to vote for a Dem.

Flip that 3.64% from GOP to Dem, and you get a 7.3% swing in the vote percentages. So, if you happened to win a House seat as a Republican in a typical Ohio district, and you won by fewer than 7 percentage points, you probably owe your seat to flippable union households. In case you’re wondering, that list would include:

Craig Newbold – 01
Mike Dovilla – 18
Mike Duffy – 21
Lynn Slaby – 41
Kristina Roegner – 42
Ron Young – 63
Bill Hayes – 91
Al Landis – 96
Casey Kozlowski – 99

in addition, two won with less than 53.5% of the vote in 3-way races:

Marlene Anielski – 17
Anne Gonzales – 19

Know what else they have in common? Not one of the eleven is currently term-limited. So, as things move along, I’ll be interested to see the positions these folks take. There’s nothing like an anti-collective bargaining vote to flip a flippable union household. Of the 27 reps from Cuyahoga, Franklin and Summit, 9 are Republicans. You’ll find 6 of those on this list. If one of them is your Rep, you might want to put some pressure on them even if you might think they’re ideologically unreachable.

Evangelize!
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  • Tarfam325

    The Senators who supported SB5 are sending out their “rationalization” letters! In his letter, Senator Bacon claims to support Teachers and First Responders and claims he would “never vote for legislation that would harm them.” SERIOUSLY???? He then goes on to say he listened to 23.5 hours of testimony on the bill. Perhaps that seems like a good amount of time to consider something to a Politician, but if you add it all up, that’s less than a day! Given that the Bill is 500 pages and has 100 additional pages of amendments, I’d say that 23.5 hours wouldn’t have even been enough time to READ and DIGEST it. If he and his fellow Senators believe these letters are going to help people accept and support their decisions, we HAVE to let them know how SADLY mistaken they are. If one of these letters makes its way to you FIGHT back and take them to task!!! I am attaching my response to Senator Bacon. Feel free to use ANY and ALL of my arguments to retaliate. And be sure to let them know WE WILL NOT FORGET! Not in 2011. Not in 2012. Not ever! Union workers won’t be a SWING vote to be sure. We will be BATTING these Senators OUT OF THE PARK!!!

  • Tarfam325

    Dear Senator Bacon,

    Some of your points are valid. I am sure you gave this a great deal of thought. However, I must dispute some of the information that you have contained here and confront issues that you did not address in this carefully worded letter.
    Let me start by addressing your last point. You claim to be an ardent supporter of educators and first responders and claim you would never support legislation that could harm them. Yet, Senate Bill 5 will limit salaries and reduce salary ranges of these employees SIGNIFICANTLY (which makes collective bargaining almost useless and trivial). How can you believe that this will not harm them? If this bill is fully implemented, we will lose our homes. We will not be able to afford to send our children to college. Are we supposed to be grateful enough to still have employment? Are YOU willing to let your voters set an appropriate salary range for you and your fellow legislators? I think it is only fair that if you believe that this bill will not harm Public Employees, that you be subjected to the same terms and see if that will remain true!
    Next, to address the idea of “merit” pay. What guidelines have you put in place to define this??? Listening to 23.5 hours of testimony for this 500 page bill with 100 amended pages…seems like VERY LITTLE time to me. I am sure it seemed like an eternity to you, to listen to people drone on about their beliefs, but that really is NOT an ample amount of time to fully digest and comprehend the bill and all of its implications, in my opinion. As for the two replacement committee members, we ALL know they did not get the opportunity to listen to this testimony and were “filled in” by people who told them what opinion they should have so the vote could go the way the Governor expected. Where is the MERIT in doing work that way? I would say all of your pay should be docked! If a teacher or first responder engaged in this type of behavior, we would certainly be held under scrutiny and would be criticized! Will WE be able to define OUR standards of MERIT for your job? Because “merit” pay HUGELY discriminates against POOR cities. How can you justify that???
    Also, on how many occasions did you meet with teachers, first responders and other union representatives?? How, specifically, did meeting with them influence or help you make your decision??? because MEETING with them is not the same as LISTENING to them or actually HEARING them. I find your letter to be an example of vague references to “doing the right thing” without actually taking any real steps to ACTUALLY “do the right thing”.
    This Senate Bill was very rushed and hurried and there is NO way you can deny that. Passing a 500 page Bill with 100 pages of amendments based on 23.5 hours of testimony??? Perhaps that is how people in your profession view thoughtfully and carefully crafting legislation. However, in my opinion, that could not even have been enough time for you to DIGEST and UNDERSTAND the bill. “Business as usual” for you. Even you have to admit that replacing committee members is not “usual” and that this added to people’s opinions that this was HURRIED due to the Governor’s agenda. Finally, you had NEWSPAPER support for this??? Seriously, that’s a defense??
    Your opinion on this Bill is still unacceptable! This letter does very little to rationalize your opinions and your stance on this Bill. You may think it will soften people’s opinion of you and (mistaken or not) your Republican Party. However, you are sadly mistaken, because we WILL NOT forget and EVERY Public Employee will vote against EVERYONE who voted for this horrible piece of legislation in such a hurried and unscrupulous manner! There is NO WAY you can justify this. So, be prepared to defend your “Merit” because we will be voting on whether you are completing your job in an acceptable and reputable manner and, so far, you are failing!

    Maureen Tarulli

  • Tarfam325

    Dear Senator Bacon,

    Some of your points are valid. I am sure you gave this a great deal of thought. However, I must dispute some of the information that you have contained here and confront issues that you did not address in this carefully worded letter.
    Let me start by addressing your last point. You claim to be an ardent supporter of educators and first responders and claim you would never support legislation that could harm them. Yet, Senate Bill 5 will limit salaries and reduce salary ranges of these employees SIGNIFICANTLY (which makes collective bargaining almost useless and trivial). How can you believe that this will not harm them? If this bill is fully implemented, we will lose our homes. We will not be able to afford to send our children to college. Are we supposed to be grateful enough to still have employment? Are YOU willing to let your voters set an appropriate salary range for you and your fellow legislators? I think it is only fair that if you believe that this bill will not harm Public Employees, that you be subjected to the same terms and see if that will remain true!
    Next, to address the idea of “merit” pay. What guidelines have you put in place to define this??? Listening to 23.5 hours of testimony for this 500 page bill with 100 amended pages…seems like VERY LITTLE time to me. I am sure it seemed like an eternity to you, to listen to people drone on about their beliefs, but that really is NOT an ample amount of time to fully digest and comprehend the bill and all of its implications, in my opinion. As for the two replacement committee members, we ALL know they did not get the opportunity to listen to this testimony and were “filled in” by people who told them what opinion they should have so the vote could go the way the Governor expected. Where is the MERIT in doing work that way? I would say all of your pay should be docked! If a teacher or first responder engaged in this type of behavior, we would certainly be held under scrutiny and would be criticized! Will WE be able to define OUR standards of MERIT for your job? Because “merit” pay HUGELY discriminates against POOR cities. How can you justify that???
    Also, on how many occasions did you meet with teachers, first responders and other union representatives?? How, specifically, did meeting with them influence or help you make your decision??? because MEETING with them is not the same as LISTENING to them or actually HEARING them. I find your letter to be an example of vague references to “doing the right thing” without actually taking any real steps to ACTUALLY “do the right thing”.
    This Senate Bill was very rushed and hurried and there is NO way you can deny that. Passing a 500 page Bill with 100 pages of amendments based on 23.5 hours of testimony??? Perhaps that is how people in your profession view thoughtfully and carefully crafting legislation. However, in my opinion, that could not even have been enough time for you to DIGEST and UNDERSTAND the bill. “Business as usual” for you. Even you have to admit that replacing committee members is not “usual” and that this added to people’s opinions that this was HURRIED due to the Governor’s agenda. Finally, you had NEWSPAPER support for this??? Seriously, that’s a defense??
    Your opinion on this Bill is still unacceptable! This letter does very little to rationalize your opinions and your stance on this Bill. You may think it will soften people’s opinion of you and (mistaken or not) your Republican Party. However, you are sadly mistaken, because we WILL NOT forget and EVERY Public Employee will vote against EVERYONE who voted for this horrible piece of legislation in such a hurried and unscrupulous manner! There is NO WAY you can justify this. So, be prepared to defend your “Merit” because we will be voting on whether you are completing your job in an acceptable and reputable manner and, so far, you are failing!

    Maureen Tarulli

  • Anonymous

    Flip all but one of these seats you mentioned, and the Democrats controll the House again.

  • JLaw53

    Brilliant! I’ve been too livid to respond yet! This will help…It’s obvious you had great English & history teachers. It’s also obvious you can never be a politician–you’re using logic, wanting supporting facts, expecting rationale decision making–sheesh… ;)

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