new Quinnipiac Poll released today shows Obama holding a 2 point lead in Ohio, but more importantly, maintaining his significant edge among women. Obama leads Romney among likely Ohio voters by 44-42. Among women, the President’s margin is 50-37.

The real concern for the Obama folks has to be the turnaround among Ohio’s independent voters–another key voting block. The President led by 4 points in both the February and March polls, but now trails Romney by 5.

Women’s opinions about both candidates are largely unchanged. 50% of women still view Obama favorably, compared to 53% in March. Meanwhile, women are not warming to Romney, with only 30% viewing him favorably, down slightly from 31% in March.

But here’s where it gets interesting. Despite a nine-point swing shifting the balance in Romney’s favor among Ohio’s independent voters, surprisingly, those voters still hold a more favorable opinion of the President than of his challenger. While Obama’s favorability ratings are dropping among independents (down to 40% from 47% in March), those voters aren’t falling in love with Romney. He is actually viewed favorably by fewer independent Ohio voters this month than in March–33%, down from 37%.

Bottom line, while it wasn’t a great month for the President with independents, he’s holding his own with women, and neither important group of voters has yet warmed up to Romney. The movement appears to come from voters souring on the President. While independent voters may say today they are inclined to vote for Romney, they still don’t like him.

The election is really Obama’s to win or lose.

Evangelize!
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  • Dmoore2222

    Most sitting presidents experience this because they’re directly faced with the problems of governing, not just taling about them. So Romney will have a slight advantage in not having to actually make decisions or take action on anything. Just talk about how things would be much better under him. Voters won’t really start paying attention until after Labor Day. By that time, Romney will have made such an ass out of himself and the economy will have improved enough that he won’t stand a chance. The longer this goes on the more opportunities he’ll have to show that out-of-touch rich guy flip-flopping all over the place. The republicans are moving more and more towared damage control for their congressional seats conceding that, barring another economic meltdown or a significant October surprise, the presidency is out of reach.

  • clambake

    How do you know that the economy will improve enough? Job growth figures were released today and they’re not looking too impressive. At any rate, a lot can happen between now and the election. I remember when Hilary was the presumptive nominee for the Democratic ticket.
    Mostly though, wake me up when it is over. Election coverage is so inane.

  • http://motivatedinohio.com MotivatedinOhio

    If you like Kasich, you will love Romney.  If you want the Austerity measures that have taken down most of Europe vote Romney.  If you want women put in their place, vote Romney.  If you want to live in a decent country, vote for the President.

  • Mr. Brown

     You’re right. This election is about Obama’s approach of building stronger public services and better communities or Romney’s approach of cutting disability, medicare, and so forth.

  • Dmoore2222

    I don’t know that. Nor do you or anyone else. But I do know the last two years have seen steady improvement over the hell hole we were in. Republicans want everyone to foget about the mess they made and pretend it can be remedied in a short time, which isn’t going to happen. It’s going to take another six to eight years to get back to what typically is considered acceptable economic growth no matter who is president. If Obama doesn’t get re-elected, then you’ll hear the same complaints about Romney who is now setting expectations so high he’ll never get there… 4% unemployment and 500,000 jobs a month? Yeah. That’s the same kind of fantasy Gingrich was spreading with $2.00 a gallon gas.

    That all sounds good and the republicans are counting on voters gobbling it up. But it’s irresponsible wishful thinking and I don’t believe most voters are going to fall for it. There’s no evidence to support that kind of growth. 6-7% unemplyment is probably the new normal. And like with gas prices it’s going to take a while for that to sink in. We all have to come to realize global competition has eliminated the unbridled growth America used to enjoy. There are just too many countries that now have the capability of producing what we alone could produce 30 years ago.

    Now, whether or not most voters can connect those dots and avoid the tender trap of p0litical pandering remains to be seen. I’d like to think they can. But we’ll see.

  • Modern Esquire

    Couple of things to keep in mind:  Obama’s polling better in Ohio now than he was at this point against McCain in ’08.  And chances are, by the time Romney takes the RNC Convention stage in Tampa, the unemployment rate nationally will be lower than when Obama took office.

  • kmo

    Good points.  Also which Romney will Mitt choose to portray for the home stretch?  The ole’ Mitt will have his own party base upset- the newer Tea Party version will not be popular with the Dems or many independents. I cannot understand the polls that show these two in a dead heat- again how would one know what Mitt stands for?

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