Nate Silver at the New York Times‘ FiveThirtyEight blog recently reviewed the outlook of the nation’s Senate race given the current public opinion polling. One of the thing Nate’s site does is weigh the polls and calculate the likelihood each candidate has of winning the race.
What does Nate say of Josh Mandel’s “surge” in the polls?
Another group of states, however, are more clearly disappointing for Republicans. Foremost among these are Ohio and Florida, where the polls have shifted sharply toward the Democratic incumbents, Sherrod Brown and Bill Nelson, in recent weeks.
In fact, Nate’s most recent Senate ratings gives Mandel only a 13% chance of winning. To give you some perspective, his weighing of the public opinion poll gives Todd Akin 40% chance of winning. Josh Mandel has half the chance of winning as the guy who thinks women’s bodies have the magical power of repelling rape sperm.
Fox News has a new poll out and it shows Sherrod Brown leading Josh Mandel by seven points: Brown 47%; Mandel 40%. Brown has a slight lead with independants and actually has more crossover support (Republicans who say they’ll vote for the Democratic candidate) than Mandel does. Brown leads by seven with seniors. He’s roughly split among likely male voters, but Brown leads among women by NINTEEN POINTS.
Unlike that guy in Missouri, we know that women can’t repel “rape” sperm. But we do know, apparently, that Republicans can repel women.