The Dispatch commissioned a poll on marriage equality. Short version: we’re soon going to get marriage equality, and the year that we do, every Republican will lose.
Overall, there’s 54-40 support, and it’s 7 points more popular among whites than African-Americans. It’s equally popular in suburbs as cities, and only down 45-50 in rural areas. It’s above water in every region except Northeast Ohio, and those are minds that we can change.
The group with the most support is independent white women under 35 in suburban Cincinnati. Who wants to run on an anti-equality, anti-birth control platform in an election where young women are massively overrepresented as a share of the electorate?
Most importantly, it polls at 42% support among Republicans, with 52% opposed.
The position that caused so much controversy for Rob Portman is supported by 42% of his party. Kasich had to walk back civil unions after a matter of minutes… and 42% of his party supports marriage equality.
John Boehner basically said that he’d write off his son before he supported marriage equality. And 42% of Republicans support marriage equality.
Why are they so out of touch with their own voters? The answer is worse than you think (for the GOP).
Via Dave Weigel, we get big-money groups like NOM and the FAMiLY Leader promising to keep the Republican Party firmly anti-LGBT. The chairman of the Iowa Republican Party tells Weigel, “I don’t hear young people advocating for gay marriage.”
73% of voters under 34 support equality. If the GOP doesn’t hear them, it’s because they’re not listening to them.
The Republican Party needs to figure it out:
NOM doesn’t make money by winning elections. NOM makes money by opposing LGBT rights. OPLA makes money by being flamboyantly anti-woman. The NRA makes money by taking Wayne LaPierre off his meds. If they moderate their message, they’ll lose donors to their competitors.
These groups are never going to give Republicans the green light on taking positions that are in the mainstream of the Republican electorate. That Kasich is waiting on them is a show of unspeakable cowardice.