From the category archives:

Ted Strickland

Will the real Kevin Holtsberry please stand up?

by ModernEsquire on March 5, 2010 · Comments

Here’s RedState contributor, former National Review freelance writer, Kevin Holtsberry in 2006:

Conservatives and libertarians love to blast Ohio as a high tax state but ignore the fact that state wide taxes are not that high.

…

The libertarian dream of slashed budgets and minimalist government is not realistic.

Holtsberry today?

Because like the green eye-shade wearers [the media] are, they demand detailed budget scenarios and explanations of how everything will work. They simply can’t fathom how something this big might be accomplished and so they seek to nit-pick it to death.

…

During normal times this would be a risky platform. Ken Blackwell ran an awkward an often off-message campaign but in many ways he had similar elements. He too was arguing for large scale changes and blaming both parties for failing to act. The problem for Blackwell – outside of the left’s constant demonization – was that the electorate wasn’t ready for big time change.

Yes, if there’s anything we’ve all agreed on is that the voters in Ohio in 2006 weren’t read for “big time” change even though they nearly swept the Republican Party almost entirely out of the State for the first time in a generation, and then, two years later, swept the Republicans out of control of the Ohio House and the White House. 

Holtsberry’s entire thesis is that everything that made Ken Blackwell radioactive in 2006 makes John Kasich smelling like roses.

Note, the usual Kasich cheerleaders,  like the Carpetblogger from Virginia, are actually citing Holtsberry’s declaration like it’s meaningful… a conservative blogger not named Jon Keeling said Kasich is going to win, therefore, OMGs Kasich is going to win!!

Never mind that Holtsberry’s thesis is based on the assumption that:

Kasich =  Blackwell = VICTORY!!!! 

Because nothing that Holtsberry says takes away from the fundamental assumption that John Kasich really doesn’t come to the table with anything that Ken Blackwell didn’t also have in 2006 except it’s now an incumbent Democratic race as opposed to an open seat.

On top of that, Holtsberry actually thinks the same voters who see “mounting budget deficits”  (even though the state’s budget has been balanced ever year as required under the Constitution) are the same voters who “are not into the inside baseball of technical budget numbers or economic development policy.”  In other words, Holtsberry assumes that voters will only see the negative in Strickland, but the positive in Kasich.  Yeah, such a scenerio does make a Kasich victory likely, but that doesn’t make the scenerio itself likely.  In fact, it’s highly UNLIKELY as evidenced by the recent polling showing Kasich losing ground.

And that’s because the voters don’t believe in the free lunch that Kasich is selling.  They don’t believe you can give a massive tax repeal that isn’t going to cause some pain.  They don’t believe you can eliminate 45% of the State’s budget in a “responsible way” as Kasich routinely claims with no explanation, especially since local governments are already warning of higher local taxes if Kasich’s plan becomes law.

I’m glad that the Kasich cheerleading squad is buying into it Holtsberry’s self-contradicting analysis… it reminds me of the same ideological delusional rationale that conservatives were spouting in trying to justify their denial that Ken Blackwell would barely get over a third of the vote come November.

Oh wait, I forgot:

John Kasich = Ken Blackwell = VICTORY!!!

But victory for whom?

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Jon Keeling (R-VA) can’t help himself… continues to lie about polls

by ModernEsquire on March 1, 2010 · Comments

Jon Keeling goes to the well again, but still refuses to acknowledge that he lied when he suggested that a) Nate Silver agreed Strickland was toast, and b) most professional pollsters are saying that the Quinny poll is actually great news for Kasich.

Heck, Tom Blumer noted that Keeling’s dropped the “great news for Kasich” spin in his latest reincarnation.

This time, Keeling has the nerve to suggest that Nate Silver is being dishonest:

Silver, who is unabashedly liberal, is being a bit dishonest with the numbers by isolating the single Quinnipiac poll in his analysis of where the race stands.
If he wanted to play fair, he would use the same standard he used in his overall analysis, the incumbent’s average in the early polls, and according to Pollster.com, Strickland is averaging 40.5%.

Strickland’s average is that low for two reasons: 1) Rasmussen has polled nearly three times as often recently as any other polling outfit and has consistently showed substantially lower numbers than the other polling outfits, 2) Pollster.com includes a poll done by the Ohio Right to Life that claims that Strickland is only poll 33%… a result so ridiculous that not even Keeling himself bothered to even mention the existence of such a poll.  So, you can imagine with only four polls during the last few months, how much the Ohio Right to Life could distort Strickland’s average.

(Even Robert Moran, the pollster Keeling cited in his first post as evidence that the “professional polling community” is balking at the Quinny poll being portrayed as good news has backed off on his comments. Moran calls the Right to Life survey “hard to believe,” thus justifying its exclusion.)

If you looked at only the polls conducted so far this year and exclude the Right to Life poll, Strickland leads by 43% to 40%.  That puts Strickland in the mid 40-s range even Keeling admits is relatively safe harbor.

Keeling also claims that the Quinny poll is “just one poll”:

First, Keeling ignores that it’s not just the “single Quinnipiac poll that shows” that Strickland is polling at or near 45%.  The University of Cincinnati polls showed the same thing.

Other Keeling whoppers:

  • “The trend shows Kasich is stagnant, and will likely remain that way until his name ID improves.”
  • “Kasich’s “situation” is not necessarily “worse”. In fact, it’s virtually unchanged.”  (I thought he said the Quinny poll showed Kasich’s situation getting better?  Now, he’s saying it’s great news because it means it hasn’t gotten worse)

I guess it depends on your definition of “virtually.”  Either way, the polling data does not even show Kasich is stagnant.  Even taking just the most favorable polling organization for Kasich, Rasmussen Reports, you have enough of a trend line to see that Kasich’s trending downward in a head-to-head against Strickland.

Coupled with the trend data from Quinnipiac, and you have the only polling organizations which have done enough polling to suggest any trend, and they BOTH show Kasich has been losing ground somewhere between 3 to 5 points since December.  That’s the result of the disaster that was the Mary Taylor rollout and the press coverage on Kasich and Taylor utter inability to explain their own tax plan or how they’d pay for it.  That suggests that as voters get engaged the tax attack will move the race even further.

On a side note, this trend is strange given that the convention wisdom that the electoral environment is said to favor challengers against incumbents, and yet, Rob Portman is doing better in his open seat race than John Kasich is doing against a Democratic incumbent.  Some day, someone in the media is going to point that out.

I don’t know why Keeling keeps writing about the Quinnipiac poll.  He’s actually written about it more than the polls showing Kasich ahead.  But it’s a clear indication that the Kasich campaign is freaking out about it.

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Jon Keeling (R-Va) is a fucking liar.

by ModernEsquire on February 28, 2010 · Comments

I’m willing to engage in people on the other side of the aisle.  I’ll even excuse the occasional ideologically-inspired perspective that leads to one side of the debate to distort the actual situation.  But I will not tolerate a blogger who just simply FLAT OUT LIES.  And Jon Keeling is a documented liar.

From Keeling’s Friday’s post “About that Quinnipiac Guv poll… “:

It seems the experts have the same kind of frustration as I did regarding the way Strickland’s lead in the latest Quinnipiac was framed in the media.

From Robert Moran of Pollster.com:

While the Quinnipiac poll may show Strickland ahead of Kasich 44%-39%, that is in NO WAY the headline. The headline is actually that (a) Strickland is way below 50% and (b) incumbents under 50% in a two way race have a very poor track record in November.

Keeling then claims that Nate Silver backs up Moran on the issue of whether Strickland polling below 50% is actually “great news for… John Kasich!:

Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com, a well-respected and left-leaning political statistics blog, did extensive research into the “under 50%” rule.

Except that the link Keeling used for Nate Silver doesn’t go to Silver’s blog, it goes to another pollster at Pollster.com who felt compelled to protect the site’s credibility by attacking Moran’s factually incorrect post!

Well, I don’t like criticizing our contributors either, but when Bob wrote on Tuesday in the context of a post on the latest results on the Ohio governor’s race that incumbent candidates “get what they get in the tracking, ” that it’s a “fairly ironclad rule” that “incumbents tend to get trace elements of the undecideds at the end of a campaign,” Nate is right and Bob is wrong.

So, the only thing the experts in polling are frustrated about is how hacks like Keeling are claiming that the fact that Strickland is polling in the mid-forties in February spells doom for Strickland come November!

Silver’s post titled “The Myth of the Incumbent 50% Rule” actually says that the Quinnipiac is good news… for Ted Strickland!

Although I have no particular comment on the dynamics of the Ohio race, which I have not spent much time following, Moran’s general sentiment is demonstrably false. What the actual evidence shows, rather, is the following:
1) It is extremely common for an incumbent come back to win re-election while having less than 50 percent of the vote in early polls.
2) In comparison to early polls, there is no demonstrable tendency for challengers to pick up a larger share of the undecided vote than incumbents.
3) Incumbents almost always get a larger share of the actual vote than they do in early polls (as do challengers). They do not “get what they get in the tracking”; they almost always get more.
4) However, the incumbent’s vote share in early polls may in fact be a better predictor of the final margin in the race than the opponent’s vote share. That is, it may be proper to focus more on the incumbent’s number than the opponent’s when evaluating such a poll — even though it is extremely improper to assume that the incumbent will not pick up any additional percentage of the vote.

On the Ohio race specifically, Silver wrote:

If we instead look at those cases within three points of Ted Strickland’s 44 percent, when the incumbent had between 41 and 47 percent of the vote in early polls, he won on 11 of 17 occasions (65 percent of the time).

In other words, given Strickland’s position in the polls, Silver concludes that historical polling data suggests that an incumbent in Strickland’s position in the polls at this point in the election cycle will win re-election TWO-THIRDS of the time.  Silver found that actually nearly HALF of all incumbents poll below 50% at this point in the election. 

Granted, Strickland’s odds do improve if he were polling above 50%.  Silver concludes that such incumbents have won 32 out of 33 times.  However, that fact doesn’t exactly spell DOOM for Strickland. 

This is the same kind of nonsense like how Keeling and the Ohio conservativesphere has gotten the vapors over Larry Sabato changing Congresswoman Betty Sutton’s re-election from “Safe Democratic” to “Likely Democratic” over the entrance of Tom Ganley’s Sutton-inspired “Cash for Clunkers” millions of campaign dollars.  Instead of certainity, it’s now only a near certainity.

Other great news for Kasich by Silver?

On average, the incumbent added 6.4 percent to his voting total between the early polling average and the election, whereas the challenger added 4.5 percent. Looked at differently, the incumbent actually picked up the majority — 59 percent — of the undecided vote vis-a-vis early polls.

Which means that Strickland got the same bump, he’s on pace to get over 50% on election day. 

How bad is Keeling’s dishonesty over the Quinny poll?

Not even Tom Blumer from BizzyBlog (who himself calls Keeling’s “spin” “pathetic”) doesn’t buy it:

That’s all well and good, but it doesn’t explain why Kasich’s situation with Qpac in Feb. 10 is WORSE than it was in Nov. 09.

Still waiting for why you shouldn’t be concerned about that ….

Tom Blumer
BizzyBlog.com

When you’ve lost Tom Blumer, give it up, man, because it’s gone…

Next up for Keeling?  Explaining why John Kasich is losing ground while Portman’s been gaining.

Whatever it is, I’m sure it’s good news for John McCain John Kasich!

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Jon Keeling (R-VA) fails in poll spin… Points out that Kasich is losing the message war already.

by ModernEsquire on February 23, 2010 · Comments

Jon Keeling’s post on today’s Quinnipiac poll is a lesson in bad propaganda.  It reminds me of how ever bad poll was spun by the McCain campaign to those infamous words:  “This is great news … for John McCain!”

Keeling tries his best to spin bad news, but he shouldn’t have bothered.  By simply trying (and failing) he reveals how Kasich has to resort to some major fallacies to put lipstick on this pig.

Keeling fallacy #1: “Comparing Quinnipiac’s ‘registered voter’ results to Rasmussen’s ‘likely’ voters results show that the more people know Kasich, the better he polls.”

He repeats this fallacy twice in his post.  He’s wrong.  Except to average the results, no serious pundit or polling analysts compares polls from different polling organizations like Keeling tries.  It’s an apple and oranges comparison.  Besides just a difference in the type of voter polled (registered vs. likely voter model), there are significant difference between methodology.  Quinny, I believe, uses live question takers, Rasmussen uses automated dialers asking recorded questions.  It’s long been held by pollsters that using automated dialers instead of live questioners lead to different results.  These differences make any attempt to compare one poll from the other and make assumptions from the differences statistically unreliable.

Regardless of the differences between the methodology of the poll, Rasmussen and Quinnipiac show that the more Ohioans become familiar with Kasich, the less likely they support him.  If you compared each polling outfits most recent poll to that same outfits prior poll of this race, you’d see that Kasich has made marginal improvement in his name recognition, but his standing has slumped, not increased. 

Since the most recent Quinny poll, Kasich has lost three points in Rasmussen against Strickland and five in Quinny.

The reason Kasich does better now with voters who are familiar with him that such voters are overwhelmingly white, conservative Republicans who are his base and the people he’s been exclusively courting for his campaign for the past THREE YEARS.  That’s hardly an accurate representation of the voting public in Ohio at large.

Keeling fallacy # 2: “It’s also clear that the massive Democrat [sic] efforts to define Kasich first have so far failed.”

Keeling repeats this theme throughout his post.  There are actually two fallacies (and one glaring example of ignorant grammar) with this Kasich talking point.  One, there has been no massive Democratic effort to define Kasich.  If Keeling thinks my posting about Kasich’s reckless tax plan, and ODP’s Kasich Tax Calculator is a “massive effort,” then the Kasich campaign is in for a shock when the Strickland campaign, ODP, unions, and other go from relying solely on free media to frame Kasich to a paid media model.  When we start seeing wall-to-wall ads attacking Kasich’s tax plan, then we can talk about “massive efforts” to define Kasich.  We aren’t there yet.

To date, the effort to define Kasich can be attributed mostly to this blog since December.  And even I, in all my vanity, do not believe that my writing of Kasich constitutes a “massive” Democratic effort, or the three to five point bounce Strickland got.

The second fallacy is that it, or something else, obviously has worked.

Pollster chart

Since December Kasich has lost a THIRD of his lead in Rasmussen.  According to the most consistent polling organizations in this race, Kasich has lost anywhere between three to five points in a head to head matchup against Strickland since December– when I began my campaign to get the media to incorporate the fiscal implications of Kasich’s tax plan into the narrative of the race.

By calling it “massive,” Keeling implicitly concedes that Kasich and Keeling have been outflanked on message and that the Kasich campaign has spent the last three months on defense, not offense.  When the best he can say is deny that it worked (even though the polls show movement), you know he’s been worried that we, not his candidate, have been dictating the narrative.

Keeling fallacy #3:  No mention of the lack of a Mary Taylor factor.

Mary Taylor was picked for two political reasons: 1) get the GOP behind Kasich, and 2) make the Kasich ticket attractive to female voters.

Umm, faceplant.  Quinnipiac notes that Strickland’s improvement comes largely from his strength with female voters.

Also, according to Quinny, Kasich has more tepid support with self-identified Republican voters than Strickland does with Democratic voters.  In fact, Kasich loses Republican voters to Strickland already at half the level Ken Blackwell lost them in 2006.

In short, the poll shows that Democrats are more united behind Strickland than Republicans are against the GOP nominee.

Furthermore, I wouldn’t be surprised to find out that a large reason Kasich doesn’t have as strong of party unity as Ted Strickland is due to the utter chaos putting Mary Taylor on his ticket caused for the rest of the GOP statewide ticket.

Keeling fallacy #4: “On every single question, dissatisfaction and disapproval of Governor Strickland worsened from the last Quinnipiac poll last November.”

Is that true, Assistant Director of the Quinnipiac Polling Institute?

“There has been an improvement in voters’ views of Gov. Ted Strickland,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “The movement is a few points, but it is consistent across a number of measures.”

In fact, Strickland has IMPROVED on the very question of whether voters approve of Strickland.  His disapproval and unfavorability ratings?  Yeah, on Strickland they went DOWN.  Keeling has the data completely backwards.

You know who’s unfavorability ratings did go up, though?  Yeah, John Kasich’s.

Keeling fallacy #5: “Strickland and the ODP have failed at improving Strickland’s reputation as a manager of Ohio’s economy and its budget.”

Um, again, Keeling cherry picks the data.  On the more important question of which candidate do voters believe would be best at handling the economy and the budget, Kasich (who voters admittedly don’t know) comes out ahead by six points.  However, his numbers are exactly unchanged from the last time Quinny asked that question while Strickland’s numbers have improved by two points on each question.

Also, another 2% volunteered that neither candidate would do particularly better on these issues, essentially reducing Kasich’s sole issue advantage to a near statistical tie.

Keeling fallacy # 6: “Ultimately, there is little evidence that the one thing that can help Strickland’s chances, a substantively improved economy, will happen over the next few months.”

The recession is officially over.  Fourth quarter GDP ‘09 was estimated at 5.7% increase.  The 3Q showed a 2.2 increase. Housing prices are going back up.  Housing starts rose 21.2% last year, the largest year-over year increase since April 2004.  Retail is beating expectations.  Unemployment is a lagging indicator.  Keeling and the rest of his “Cheerleaders for continued economic failure” who have made a political bet that the economy wouldn’t improve substantially late last year are losing big.

Keeling can try to spin this news all he wants, but it’s clearly nobody is buying that this isn’t evidence good news for Strickland:

  • Politico: “Strickland retakes lead over Kasich”
  • National Journal: ” Strickland Reclaims Lead, Still Under 50″
  • CNN: Strickland’s numbers on the rebound”
  • MSNBC “First Read“: “Buckeye State Watch: Is the worm beginning to turn for Democrats in Ohio, too?”

Oh, and you know all those conservative bloggers who have been trying to make this race seem like last year’s gubernatorial race in New Jersey?

“It’s one poll, but it might give pause to Republicans who think the 2009 off-year elections and 2010 Massachusetts race point to an electoral tsunami that they can ride to easy wins. Strickland is in far better shape than, for example, former Gov. Jon Corzine (D-N.J.) was at this point in 2009 — last February, he trailed now-Gov. Chris Christie (R-N.J.) by six points.”–David Weigel (formerly of The American Spectator, The American Conservative, & The American Prospect), Washington Independent (“In Ohio, a Republican Candidate Slips in the Poll.”)

And what polling outfit showed Corzine losing by six points at this point a year ago?  Quinnipiac.

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Gov. Strickland, Congressman Tim Ryan, and GM announce 1,200 new auto manufacturing jobs coming to Lordstown

by ModernEsquire on February 23, 2010 · Comments

So, the President of GM North America was in town today to announce that later this year GM will add a third shift at its Lordstown plant.  The move will add 1,200 new jobs, with a third of those going to former laid off workers at the plant.  It’ll generate $47 million in new payroll, $470k in local income taxes and $1.4 million in state income taxes.

“Adding a third shift to build Cruze is an investment with impact far beyond General Motors. It’s an investment in the long-term value of Lordstown and the prosperity of Ohio,” said Reuss. “It provides rewarding manufacturing jobs and efficient class-leading new cars for American car buyers.” (From the Youngstown Vindicator)

Here’s the statement from Governor Strickland, explaining how this impacts more than just the Lordstown GM plant:

“I’m proud to celebrate the creation of 1,200 new Ohio jobs and the resilience of the working men and women of the Mahoning Valley.  The chips were down but we never gave up,” Strickland said.  “That grit and steely determination is why I love this valley and why I believe in Ohio. 

“The economic impact of GM’s investment will benefit the people of this region and communities throughout Ohio: GM’s Defiance Foundry will build engine blocks for the Cruze. GM’s Parma Metal Center will stamp dozens of components for the Cruze. GM’s Toledo Powertrain Center will produce transmissions and numerous suppliers in the Mahoning Valley and across the state will contribute parts for the Cruze,” Strickland said. 

…

“It’s a great day in Ohio. Because GM is making a little automotive history in Ohio today. And Ohioans are going to be making a new kind of car for years and years to come,” Strickland said.  “We look forward to continuing our strong partnership with GM and the Lordstown community to keep auto manufacturing strong in Ohio.”

And Congressman Tim Ryan:

“President Obama and Congress made the unpopular but necessary decision to take partial ownership of General Motors and guide it through bankruptcy.  This bold step may have saved manufacturing in the United States from being wiped out,” Ryan said. “As a result of that leadership, not only were the Mahoning Valley and Northeast Ohio community spared an economic catastrophe, we now stand to reap the benefits of those tough decisions. I commend the workers at the GM Lordstown plant for their leadership and maturity.  Without their skills, talents and positive attitude, this day would have never come.

“I would like to thank Governor Strickland for his constant attention to the Mahoning Valley and the 17th Congressional District.  His input and guidance have been instrumental in not only this project, but in every one of our economic successes over the past few weeks.

“I would also like to commend Senator Sherrod Brown for his powerful voice on behalf of our domestic manufacturing base.  The American auto-industry has no better friend in the Senate.

“It’s clear that our local economic development strategy is working: another 1,100 high-paying jobs in Lordstown, corporate investment of $650 million and 350 permanent jobs at V&M Star, 500 more jobs expected at VXI in downtown Youngstown, a San Francisco technology company bringing up to 100 jobs to the Youngstown Business Incubator in the next two years, and Severstal Steel returning to work in Warren.  I believe that this is the beginning of the Miracle on the Mahoning,” Ryan said.

The Governor’s press release notes this isn’t the only positive news in Ohio’s automotive manufacturing base:

Ohio and GM are continuing to move forward on important investments for our state. Last week Governor Strickland joined GM officials at the Powertrain Plant in Defiance to announce a $59 million investment that will support the production of the next generation fuel efficient Ecotec engine while creating about 80 new jobs.

And, on Feb. 8, the governor announced that the Defiance plant was awarded a $518,232 industry efficiency grant through Ohio’s State Energy Program, funded through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. The award will help fund new equipment that will save energy, reduce raw material consumption, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and allow the facility to be more competitive by reducing its overall annual costs by $515,013.

A reporter was able to capture as he rides dropping poll numbers.

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New Quinnipiac poll shows Strickland bouncing back; Did the Ohio GOP peak too soon?

by ModernEsquire on February 23, 2010 · Comments

Answer is likely yes, it did.

The Columbus Dispatch has the story on the latest poll by Quinnipiac University on the Governor’s race, and it’s almost entirely great news.

Since November (the last Quinny poll), the race went from a dead heat to a five-point lead for Governor Strickland (44% to 39%).  Despite the addition of Mary Taylor to the ticket, the Strickland-Brown ticket has a major advantage with female voters (48% to 33%). 

Strickland now splits Independent voters, a key demographic.

Strickland’s improvement is across the board with both his favorability (+7 point jump) and approval ratings (+3 point jump) receiving a sizeable boost. Meanwhile, Kasich continues to remain largely unknown (62% of voters still don’t know enough about John Kasich to form an opinion about him), and even worse for him, he is becoming increasing unpopular (he’s tied his worse showing on unfavorable opinions).

Strickland not only has his party’s voters more strongly behind him, but in the head to head, he actually takes more Republicans voters from Kasich than Kasich takes of Democratic voters.

The only bright spot for Kasich in this poll?  Kasich leads Strickland by six-points on which candidate voters think would do better rebuilding Ohio’s economy and handling the State budget.  But then again, these are the same voters who 62% don’t know enough about John Kasich to form an opinion about him.  As Kasich is defined by his reckless tax plan, even that advantage will continue to crumble.

Even if you look at the Rasmussen polls (which show Kasich ahead), you’d note that over the last three months the Republican advantage in both that race and the Senate race has been slowly shrinking.

I’ll continue to watch the polls, but we’ve may have seen a political environment that may have peaked too soon for the Republicans.

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John Kasich endorses Ted Strickland for Governor

by ModernEsquire on February 4, 2010 · Comments

John Kasich has been on a tear lately…. a tear of endorsing Governor Strickland’s plan to Turnaround Ohio:

Starting at the 6:18 mark:

Kasich: “Now, Larry, at the same time, we talk about: how do you transition? In manufacturing, go up the value chain, you know, make parts for alternative energy, go into avontics and make parts for advanced aircraft.  You know, there’s still a chance to make cars, but you just can’t rely on auto parts.  You think about technology, our workers out here are good people, they’re smart people, we’ve got a great university system, we can get people from Silicon Valley to come here, but we have to improve the atmosphere in our State….”

I’ll agree with Keeling on this, the plan Kasich just described is a “homerun.”  Only problem is that it’s Governor Strickland’s Turnaround Ohio plan.

You know who’s done a lot on promoting the manufacturing of alternative energy technologies in Ohio, John?  Ted Strickland. 

You know whose Administration created that great University System in Ohio?  Ted Strickland (and Chancellor Eric Fingerhut).

You know whose Administration already has done regulatory reform and got rid of thousands of overly burdensome and unproductive government regulations?  Yep, Ted Strickland.

Ted Strickland has enacted job-creation tax credits, he’s ushered in a reform of our corporate tax rates, cut our personal income tax rates by double-digits and now about of expensive makeup and hair and private jet tours through Ohio is going to help John Kasich avoid that reality.

(BTW, at no time did John Kasich mention once his tax repeals… in an interview billed as “Kasich on Taxes.”  He falsely said our budgets haven’t been balanced, when they are REQUIRED to be balanced.  He claims Governor Strickland raised taxes… when he’s lowered them.  So, not only is John Kasich running to the national media claiming a plan that is actually the Governor’s record, he’s then lying about the record.)

And I admit, I misjudged the extent John Kasich would try to co-opt Governor Strickland’s record as his own.  I should have realized that when I didn’t see Jon Keeling writing post after post, Tweet after Tweet, condemning the Third Frontier, it meant that Kasich was going to sign onto it.

After all, John Kasich has wowed the Tea Party crowds throughout Ohio with his conservative populist message as being against “corporate welfare,” so much he claimed that he was a Tea Bagger First, a Republican second.

Except the Dayton Daily News reported this morning that the Kasich campaing has endorsed the compromise on Third Frontier worked out between Governor Strickland, the House Democrats, and the Senate Republican leaderships.

So, imagine the gall of Kasich when despite all this, he tries to pivot before the general election and claim that Governor Strickland has no plan to Turnaround Ohio.

Excuse me a minute, I’m sorry Mary Taylor has something she wants to say in response to concerns that Kasich-Taylor have no plans:

“[T]hey’re talking about a plan that doesn’t currently exist,” Taylor said.

Mary Taylor is right.  It’s hard to criticize someone if they don’t have anything original to say…

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Strickland wins broad bipartisan support for $700 million job creation program

by ModernEsquire on February 3, 2010 · Comments

In May, Ohio voters will be asked to approve a $700 million bond expansion for the Third Frontier.  It is yet another major bipartisan victory for the Strickland Administration.

But unlike the tax freeze, the Senate Republicans are going to have to supply more than just five nominal votes.  This ballot issue will pass with widespread bipartisan support.

The plan is far more than what the Senate Republicans passed, but it uses the money quicker than the timetable called for by the version passed by the House Democrats.  It’s the best of both worlds.  $700 million for job creation to be spent over four years, and it’ll go to the voters in May.

And I bet the farm John Kasich will come out against it.  He has to because Governor Strickland supports it and is going to get a lot of credit for getting this bipartisan agreement worked out in time to get this on the ballot in time for May.  (Meanwhile, Kasich’s definition of “bipartisanship” is shutting down the government when you don’t get your way, and then being forced into a compromise where you still don’t get your way, but you declare victory nonetheless.)  Governor Strickland is going to be able to run on a record of bipartisanship that Kasich cannot counter.

Here’s the comment from the Governor today on the bipartisan compromise on Third Frontier:

“All sides can be proud of this bipartisan agreement to place a renewal of the Ohio Third Frontier before voters in May.  Third Frontier was created with the support of Ohioans in 2002 and has since created more than 48,000 jobs through its investments in high-growth industries.

“The overwhelming bipartisan support from the legislature is a strong validation of the most successful economic development and job-creating program in Ohio.  I appreciate Ohio’s business, higher education and labor leaders for supporting Third Frontier and for their unwavering belief in Ohio.  They know that our best days are ahead of us, not behind us.  Renewing Third Frontier is a central part of Ohio’s plan to build a foundation for long-term economic progress.  I will encourage Ohioans to support this proven program at every opportunity.”

The same people who used gay marriage in 2004 for voter turnout will cynically snipe that this is about helping the Governor, except the vote is being held in May, not November.  And the average voter will see this as helping them, not the Governor.

John Kasich is going to come out against $700 million for jobs because he knows that if it passes, it helps not just Ohio, but Strickland, politically.  He’ll oppose it because it hurts his campaign.  Pure and simple.  He has no choice.

He’ll oppose $700 million in job creation over four years and offer instead a vague, even more expensive tax plan that already Kasich has said can’t be done in ten years and is actually unlikely to create any jobs. (More on that later.)

Write the date and time you read this post and just wait to see what Kasich and his supporters do and when.  They’re going to oppose passing $700 millions for jobs in May, and then try to run in November on jobs. 

And they … are…. screwed.

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Poor Jon Keeling…praises other Governors for doing less than Strickland

by ModernEsquire on February 3, 2010 · Comments

Keeling praises a bunch of Republican Governors for cutting spending.

Apparently, unaware from Virginia, that Governor Strickland has cut $2 billion in spending which is more than any of the Governors Keeling listed.

And, John Kasich has never passed ANY budget cutting overall spending.

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[UPDATED:] After $40k in polling, hundreds for makeup and hair, image-conscious John Kasich is still afraid of the press

by ModernEsquire on February 3, 2010 · Comments

We’ve all learned from the campaign finance reports how posh ($10k in private charted jets) and image conscious (over $40k in polling, $250 on a makeup artist) John Kasich can be.

Today, Stephen Koff of the Plain Dealer breaks the Code of Silence in the media on another front:  John Kasich runs from the media more than he’s been running for Governor.

Kasich’s avoidance of the media has gotten so bad, Governor Strickland, who has endured the gauntlet of criticism by the press, actually feels sorry for the media:

John Kasich believes in message discipline, which means he’ll answer questions when he’s good and ready. Ohio voters who want to know how the former congressman and Lehman Brothers executive would handle thorny issues in the state budget, for example, will find out when the GOP candidate for governor decides it is time to tell them.

…

[Strickland said:] “I am looking forward to the time when the two of us are willing to talk openly and directly to the press, and to answer questions, as I think I have always done in my political career. Whether I’ve been a candidate or an officeholder, I’ve always been willing to stand before the press to take whatever questions they wanted to ask me and to attempt to give the most direct and candid answers possible. And I’m looking forward to the time when Mr. Kasich is willing to do the same thing.”

The Columbus Dispatch asked if Strickland thought Kasich is hiding from the press right now.

“Well I wouldn’t want to characterize his behavior in that way,” Strickland said. “But I haven’t seen him allow himself to be directly questioned by the press, except on maybe one or two occasions.”

Even Kasich said at the Mary-Taylor announcement that it was the first time he took questions from the media since announcing… last June.  Of course, given how horrible that press conference went, I guess I can’t fault Kasich for running away. 

So what does the Kasich campaign say when asked about being incredibly image conscious to the point of absurdity?

The Kasich campaign says it will respond this afternoon, and we’ll update when it does.

Jesus Christ on a cracker…. (We’ll get back to you after our focus group we just convened on the issue gets back to us.)

[UPDATE:]  It took the Kasich campaign over two hours, and I imagine thousands of dollars in political consultant fees, and the best they came back with is a snarky comment about unemployment.  Seriously, these guys are weak.

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Strickland Pulls Big Bucks From Republican Donors

by Joseph on January 31, 2010 · Comments

Work has been kicking my ass the past few weeks. I’ve had very little time for anything else – especially politics. But when I saw the 2009 campaign finance data had finally been posted I made some time today to download the reports for Strickland and Kasich.

Taking a quick look a few things pop out immediately. One of them is what seems to be a large number of traditionally Republican contributors giving very large sums of money to Strickland.

When I talk about traditional Republicans I’m talking about people who have rarely, if ever, donated to a Democrat in their life. Rich, powerful folks who have given tens of thousands of dollars to the RNC. People who help fund the campaigns of Romney and Bush and Boehner.

These are people who support candidates they consider to be pro-business. Candidates who are almost always Republicans. And these people are supporting Strickland. Which should leave the rest of us seriously doubting the message Kasich’s campaign is pushing about Strickland causing jobs and businesses to leave Ohio.

Carl Lindner and his wife Edyth, for example, gave Strickland $10K each. Carl Lindner is one of the richest people in the world. He owns the United Dairy Farmers chain. He owns a huge hunk of American Financial Group. This guy has given so much money to Republican candidates over the years that an entire section on his Wikipedia page is dedicated to his GOP political contributions. In 2006 he gave thirty grand to Blackwell. In 2004 he raised $300,000 for the GOP and then gave another $250,000 to Bush’s inaugural fund. This year he’s supporting Ted Strickland.

James Hagedorn is the CEO of Scott’s Miracle Gro. He’s given tens of thousands to the RNC. As well as to Boehner, Bush and Voinovich. This year he’s giving $10,000 to Strickland.

Henry Schnieder normally supports Republicans like Bush, McCain, Chabor and Boehner. This year he gave $11,000 to Strickland.

Richard Osborne, Bush supporter, gave $11,395 to Strickland.

Alex Johnson, big John McCain supporter, giving $11,395 to Strickland.

David Cioffi, Bush and Romney supporter, giving $11,395 to Strickland.

Dominic Visconsi Bush and Romney supporter, $12,395 for Ted last year.

Again, all rich business-loving folks. All long-time Republican financial supporters. All supporting Ted Strickland this year.

It really makes Kasich’s Strickland-is-anti-business message seem like a load of hot steaming elephant crap.

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John Kasich’s campaign really shouldn’t allow crowd shots at his events

by ModernEsquire on January 29, 2010 · Comments

So, yesterday, the Kasich-Taylor campaign had a web event billed as a town-hall in all 88 counties in Ohio.

Here’s the turnout among College Republicans in Mansfield:

KasichCrowd

BTW, according to WMFD TV, that’s the crowd they got at an event hosted by THREE different College Republicans chapters… in central Ohio… Kasich’s geographical base.

This is what $40k in polling and over $10k in private jets gets you in Ohio.

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After spending the last six months doing nothing but fundraising, John Kasich’s campaign still has a sizeable disadvantage to Ted Strickland’s campaign.

by ModernEsquire on January 27, 2010 · Comments

In response to Kasich-Taylor announcing that they were reporting they have $4 million on hand, Strickland-Brown Communication Director Lis Smith issued the following statement:

“While we are still compiling our fundraising report, Governor Strickland will have more cash on hand than any incumbent Governor in Ohio history at this point in the campaign. Given Congressman Kasich’s 20 years in Washington, brief presidential campaign, and 7 years on Wall Street, we’re frankly surprised that he didn’t raise more.”

So what does that mean?  Well, according to the Secretary of State’s office, if Ms. Smith’s statement is true, that means that Governor Strickland’s campaign has MORE THAN $5.7 MILLION on hand.

I don’t have any sources, but I’ve got to believe that it’s around $6 million.

Let’s remember that unlike Kasich, Governor Strickland has a day job, and the reporting period constituted almost the entire budget debate.  Yet, Ted Strickland is still breaking fundraising records.  Kasich pulled out Sean Hannity and Glenn Beck.  He went all over the nation raising every penny he could just so he could talk about his record-breaking fundraising haul… and he’s still getting beat.

Remember, even Kasich always believed that his Wall Street connections would keep him well-funded in any race:

“In 2008, Mr. Kasich thinks he will be tanned, rested and ready, and having done his time on Wall Street-having finally rubbed up close against all those big-money guys-he just might be able to scrape together enough cash to make a meaningful run at it. “If I can fix my fund-raising problems, I will run again,” he says.”

Of course, in that same interview, Kasich also said:

“I think President Bush is doing a fine job.”

At this point in 2005, Ted Strickland only had a $700k cash-on-hand advantage to Ken Blackwell. Wow, indeed, Keeling.

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Gov. Strickland’s State of the State address getting high marks throughout the State.

by ModernEsquire on January 27, 2010 · Comments

Here’s the roundup of editorials on yesterday’s State of the State address:

Toledo Blade:

GOV. Ted Strickland’s State of the State address yesterday was long on initiatives that may reap long-term benefits in jobs and economic growth, but short on what many of the state’s nearly 675,000 unemployed residents hoped to hear: when there will be work for them. That’s as good as could be expected under the circumstances.

…

Mr. Strickland can’t spend money the state doesn’t have. Faced with massive cuts in many areas of state spending, the governor was honest about his commitment to maintain and even improve Ohio’s schools. In the final analysis, he didn’t create Ohio’s economic problems and there’s little he could have done about them in the face of a national and global economic meltdown.

Ohioans should remember why they elected Democrats in 2006. Republicans may justly claim credit for the highly successful Third Frontier program, but 16 uninterrupted years of Republican control – including eight years of Mr. Taft – helped leave Ohio largely unprepared for the fundamental economic changes that have been occurring.

So Governor Strickland offered what he could: belief that there is a light at the end of this recession. That’s a meager meal for Ohioans hungry for jobs, but it’s more sustaining than empty rhetoric.

Akron Beacon Journal:

The governor has a stronger record than his critics contend. The state’s universities and colleges needed an advocate, and Strickland has filled the role, aided by Eric Fingerhut, the most able chancellor of the Board of Regents. They have joined Republicans and Democrats in the legislature in slowing tuition increases and routing new resources to higher education. The governor wasn’t the first to embrace more robust standards for alternative and renewable energy initiatives. He has since become a determined and enthusiastic advocate.

Strickland famously contended that he would fail as governor if he did not repair the way the state pays for public schools. He has delivered a promising evidence-based concept. Unfortunately, implementation will take place during the next decade or more, sufficient funding much in doubt, the schools heavily reliant for now on federal stimulus money at the critical margins.

The state has scrambled to make ends meet, the most recent episode involving an $851 million gap. As a result, the governor stayed away from ambitious new programs. What he unveiled was a collection of smaller initiatives, mostly designed to reinforce current efforts to fuel a new economy in Ohio and, more specifically, to deal with the shortage of credit, even solid companies finding capital scarce.

Not surprisingly, the governor made a necessary pitch for extending the Third Frontier project at a funding level in tune with its success and potential. Regrettably, Senate Republicans are having trouble grasping the achievement set in motion by Bob Taft, one of their own. Their reluctance reflects the looming campaign season, and provided a handy foil for a governor who chose to open his run for re-election with a hopeful argument about the state of the state.

Cleveland Plain Dealer:

Strickland’s annual address made clear that he will play offense, not defense, against Republican challenger John Kasich.

Strickland also told the Republican-run Senate and the Democrat-run House that Ohio has 5,021 fewer state employees than when he took office in January 2007, and that the state now has “fewer state employees than at any time since Ronald Reagan was in the White House.” On spending and taxes, his implicit challenge to Kasich was, “Bring it on!”

Strickland proposed a raft of creative ideas that won’t break the bank but could improve Ohio’s jobs picture. Good politics? Sure. Talking up jobs, in good times and in bad, is what Ohio governors do.

…

All in all, Strickland tried gamely to gloss over the hard times with a positive speech. Maybe that’s not a bad thing in a state suffering almost as much from a crisis of confidence as it is from a crisis in the economy. There is something to be said for positive leadership.

Columbus Dispatch:

While his speech included no sweeping proposals, such as last year’s plan to overhaul school funding, he did unveil a laundry list of smaller-scale development and education initiatives aimed at creating jobs and improving the work force. While the impact of these is uncertain, Strickland deserves credit for pushing to put a renewal of the Third Frontier tech-development initiative before voters in May. Investing anew in an approach that has generated 48,000 jobs and $6.6 billion in economic activity is a statement of confidence in Ohio’s future.

…

Ohio needs leaders concerned not with scoring points against political opponents but with marshaling all the state’s talent and creativity to create opportunities for everyone.

Dayton Daily News:

The governor outlined an approach that was low on partisanship and ideology. That offers hope of some progress in the legislature.

And the mere fact that there’s a plan, a direction, is a good thing. It beats a sense that everybody is flailing aimlessly. But whether it’s enough of a plan is a debate yet to be had.

Youngstown Vindicator:

Strickland, giving his fourth State of the State address, also talked about some of the accomplishments of his administration, including expanding the Homestead Property Tax Exemption and cutting taxes to the point that Ohio now has the lowest business taxes in the Midwest.

He also took credit for the electricity reform bill that short circuited the impending deregulation that would have increased rates. Ohioans now pay 10 percent less for electricity than the national average.

And while Strickland announced a number of initiatives to encourage the creation of jobs in the private sector, he was able to say that “today Ohio has 5,021 fewer state employees than when I took office. That’s fewer state employees than at any time since Ronald Reagan was in the White House.” That’s a reduction that runs counter to the conventional wisdom that all government ever does is grow.

What we’re seeing in the coverage across the State was that the Governor offered a frank and honest assessment of the situation, expressed a pragmatic and realistic approach to deal with it in a positive, optimistic manner.  Plus, we’re seeing the first real reporting on exactly what Governor Strickland has done since he was elected in 2006.

I think if I had written down what objectives, politically, this speech needed to achieve, Governor Strickland’s State of the State address yesterday hit just about every one of them.

Ohioans want a pragmatic leader, one who doesn’t talk about the State being in a hopeless “death spiral,” but acknowledges that we have big problems that are difficult to resolve given the State’s limited resources.  But at the end of the day, we want a leader who is realistic about our problems, but optimistic of our future.  Strickland hit that.  John Kasich is all negative all the time.  He doesn’t even think he can fix Ohio’s economy this decade, and even then, his plan would require either massive tax increases, new taxes, or see our state budget go bust.

Bipartisan, optimistic pragmatism versus nay-saying, pessimistic ideological demagoguery.  I like our odds.

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John Kasich reminds everyone that he created the housing and IT bubbles of the 1990s

by ModernEsquire on January 26, 2010 · Comments

Who’s bright idea was THIS? 

Hey, John, to compete with the Governor appearing at the well of the People’s house to bipartisan applause, we’re going to film you in an empty room.  But we’ll make it all white like the loading room in “The Matrix.”  The kids will love it even if we never make any guns appear and you never kick ass.  Yeah, we’ll keep it as blank as your plan to fix Ohio’s economy.  Look into the camera like your talking to your dog after it just took a dump on your exotic, persian carpet in your study…. Great, just like that.

Oh, and could you talk about all the new ideas you got from the Voinovich, Taft, and Blackwell campaigns?  Yeah, the voters totally believe that lawsuits cost them their jobs and not your support for free trade deals that killed Ohio’s manufacturing sector or the repeal of Glass-Steagal that helped your old buddies from Lehman Brothers. 

By the way, could you remind people how you enacted policies that created the housing and IT bubble that created this recession?  Grrrreat…. Shooting in 3, 2, 1….

Seriously, Kasich talking about “honest” balanced budgets while he runs around the state promising to repeal both the estate and income tax, with no announced plan on how to pay for them, is just comical. 

The fact of the matter is that with Kasich’s campaign now swearing off even a ten-year timetable to repeal Ohio’s income tax, (See where Kasich’s campaign spokesman throws State Rep. Adams under the bus.) Kasich’s campaign cannot even claim to have a plan to fix Ohio’s economy IN THIS DECADE.  No plan.  It’s as blank as his background.  Ted Strickland ushered in the biggest tax cut in modern Ohio history.  It hasn’t worked.  More of the same isn’t the answer, John, and yet, that’s exactly what you’re calling for.  Instead of offering the same failed policies of past Republican Administrations, Governor Strickland, unlike Kasich, is proposing a new way to build Ohio’s economy in this decade.

BTW, no mention of Mary Taylor, not even in the end credit?  But I though she was so super awesome?!?

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