Currently viewing the tag: "Polls"
I hate polls. I hated paying for them as a consultant, hated having to pay attention to them for candidates, hated the sight of them, the thought of them. I hate talking about them. Hate writing about them. Hate reading about them. Hate listening to people talk about them. Hate cross tabs, trendlines, all of it. Which is why all this talk of somehow measuring a voter’s relative “enthusiasm” for voting, and conjuring some alchemy to get from that to an election prediction, is really starting to get to me.
I mean, really. A vote is a vote.
It’s one.
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Full Story... →48-47. I’m not the polling blogger here at PB, but I have been noticing something very weird about this cycle’s measurement of the so-called “enthusiasm gap”.
As Modern has pointed out, many of the polls showing Kasich ahead by a wide margin sample Republican voters at nearly a majority of the entire electorate.
There is no evidence, none, that the smallest population of the registered voter population in Ohio (registered Republicans) will be the biggest population of the general election population in November to such an extent that they will be a majority of the general election vote [...]
Full Story... →Jon Keeling is really starting to lose his mind. Today, he claimed, with no evidence, that the Strickland campaign just flat out “made up” an internal poll showing them behind by three points in order to have something to say about yesterday’s Quinnipiac. It’s, of course, totally untrue.
Jai Chabria, a Kasich campaign worker, and the “other man” in Kasich’s “two-man” Columbus Lehman Brothers office, also tweeted that the poll was a complete fiction.
The only problem with this theory is that Matt Naugle wrote about an internal Democratic poll showing [...]
Full Story... →There seems to be a real divergence in polling. On one end, Quinnipiac, Fox News, and CNN/Time has the Governor’s race at a 5-7 lead for Kasich. On the other end, you have SurveyUSA, the Columbus Dispatch’s mail-in poll, and today’s Quinnipiac poll that claims that Kasich has a 12-17 point lead.
Earlier this week, Stu Rothenberg, a highly respected political forecaster dismissed the results of recent SurveyUSA polls and the Dispatch poll, saying:
That survey, which showed Republican John Kasich with a 12-point lead over incumbent Gov. Ted Strickland (D), had an inexplicable sample that was [...]
Full Story... →Here’s a shocker!? State Representative Todd Book (D- Portsmouth) has a problem with name recognition in the more populous western part of the district.? This is news to absolutely nobody, but, apparently, the Krikorian campaign who has spent money on yet another poll on the race in their public relations blitz to make his candidacy seem unbeatable.
Whenever I get a campaign poll, I’m already suspicious,? but when all I get is a press release with not even a redacted or abridged version of the poll data, I’m downright distrustful.? It leaves me having to parse the word-choice carefully to [...]
Full Story... →Budget Watch
